The Odds Are

There's a site called Randomize and you pick and flip a coin.  "You have a 50/50 chance of this coin landing on heads or tails.  This U.S. penny has been flipped 162405 times.  Why don't you give it another flip!"  You can pick from a number of coins. Or you can roll the dice, generate random integers, prime numbers, lottery numbers, and random cards.  The website specializes in randomizing different things.  It has a random quote. We think of these odds and probabilities: 50-50, 60-40 and 80-20.    How many people do you need to have a 50-50 chance of sharing a birthday? 23 people.  In a room of just 23 people there’s a 50-50 chance of two people having the same birthday. In a room of 75 there’s a 99.9% chance of two people matching. I find that I have forgotten that odds and probably are not the same:   "Odds compare one event to another event, whereas probability compares one event to both possible events. Thus, when the odds are 60 to 40, the fraction for the Odds is 60/40, but the fraction to calculate the probability is 60/100". I am really thinking about the weather - of course.  That's my focus for probability as we move into spring rain and leave winter snow behind.  We want to have 0 probability of snow wherever we go.  Not that 20% chance of snow at any given point on the map.  "So for every 10 kms you travel you will increase your odds of seeing snow by multiplying the chance of snow at each point".  So stay put and reap the 20%. Our pictures today are scenes from Pennsylvania in late January when we visited the Longwood Orchid Festival.

Super Blue Blood Moon Ahead

Isn't it a Super Blue Blood Moon solar eclipse this month?  What a headline - go to space.com and it shows an animation of the moon's path through the shadow of the earth.  It gives all the information on how to see it. Here's the definition: "A Blue Moon is when two full moons happen in the same calendar month; lunar eclipses occur when the moon passes into Earth's shadow; and supermoons happen when the moon's perigee — its closest approach to Earth in a single orbit — coincides with a full moon. In this case, the supermoon also happens to be the day of the lunar eclipse". The best places to see the "Super Blue Blood Moon" are Alaska, the Hawaiian islands and the western part of North America.  It will take place in the early morning of January 31st between 4:51 and 6:08 PST.   In parts of the world the eclipse will happen at Moon Rise and for others at Moon Set.  For us in the east it will begin at 5:51am and at 6:48am the darker part of the Earth's shadow will begin to "blanket" the moon and create the blood-red tint.  The instructions are to get to a high place and make sure you have a clear line of sight to the horizon in the west-northwest.  Opposite from where the sun will rise. Today we're looking at some motion blur pictures, taken on our drive down to Longwood.

This is Blue Monday

Today is known as  Blue Monday - the most depressing day of the year.  "It is calculated using a series of factors in a (not particularly scientific) mathematical formula. The factors are: the weather, debt level (specifically, the difference between debt and our ability to pay), the amount of time since Christmas, time since failing our new year's resolutions, low motivational levels and the feeling of a need to take charge of the situation".  This was started as a public relations invention in 2005, and January 24th was the first Blue Monday.  It generally falls on the third Monday in January.  I noticed it this year as there are Blue Monday sales being advertised.  The equation has been called farcical and nonsensical, but it seems to live on as an observed day. I took a look at what the Snopes rating is for Blue Monday - true or false - the most depressing day of the year. Of course, they rated it false.   What is Blue Monday competing with for national observances?  This is Martin Luther King Day, Civil Rights Day, Hat Day, National Crowd Feed Day, Strawberry Ice Cream Day.  If we were to skip to tomorrow, Tuesday January 16th is Nothing Day.  Is that 0 day, null day, nought day?  It was started by newspaper columnist Harld Pullman Coffin in 1973. The unofficial holiday aims to provide people "with a day where they can just sit without celebrating, observing or honouring anything."  It is considered an "un-event."   Isn't this picture amazing for its vivid green?  This was taken in July 2017 on a rainy day in Niagara-on-the-Lake.  What I notice about the composition that makes me laugh is the contrast between the pattern of graceful arching maple trees and the vertical tree slicing up the image.  Oh well...

I Didn't Know What Time It Was

Our title today is a song title by Rogers and Hart. On Saturday I stopped at Moyer Road in Vineland to photograph the solitary oak tree.  I've taken this tree's portrait for a while now and there are two pictures of it - one of these pictures is from December and one from Saturday.  They seem indistinguishable to me.  It will be interesting to see how spring unfolds on the landscape and shows its presence.

Peninsula Ridge - Photogenic in any weather

What could be better than the headline on the online  CBC news 'Snowy owl ppotted soaring by Montreal traffic camera.'  It is a great shot of the owl looking directly into the camera with the characteristic curiosity of an owl. Take a look "here" if you hare interested. Today we see the difference in temperature and snow cover in the pictures of Peninsula Ridge Winery.  The tones and colours are so dissimilar in different weather, and different skies.

Winter's Infinity Pool

A return visit to Grimsby Beach yesterday revealed a winter landscape of ice on rocks.  The waves of the day before have frozen and formed icicles. The old Grimsby pier still stretches out into the water even though it is much smaller than the days when the steamer Turbinia docked there.  I've included an historical postcard so you can see what it was like then. Yesterday's sunny scene was a remarkable one - with the pier covered in ice.  It had the appearance of an infinity pool with the blue ice floating over the blue water.  The gulls standing at the end of the pier make a wonderful focal point.

Countdown to Christmas - the Landscape in December

It is the countdown to Christmas and everyone is busy shopping, going to concerts, baking, and going to special events.  These activities seem to be excellent distractions from the loss of our beautiful fall colours and glowing landscapes.  

These two pictures show the entrance to one of the Royal Botanical Gardens hiking trails.  They were taken just over a month apart, and with similar light in the sky.  But how the autumn colours make everything glow and how the winter sky and sombre reduced colour palatte makes for a stark comparison.

Of course, we will next experience Winter in Niagara.  The colour palette will reduce to the point where the images are black and white naturally.  It is a significant contrast to the many colours and hues of summer and autumn.  Of course, we then experience the cycle anew and our glorious spring returns.

Squirrel House Gardens - A Garden of Colour

Hi everyone,

We are quite subdued in our colour choices in the garden - perhaps we want to have nature take centre stage.  Elisabeth Hilton's garden has abundant colour and here's the first example.  This intricate fence and chive garden is wonderfully matched in a soft pink colour.   

Elisabeth's interpretation of the landscape is both natural and created.  Here's a view of the natural landscape with a rustic bench.

Squirrel House Gardens is located in St. Catharines, Ontario, on 5th Street.  It is a private garden open to the public by appointment - more at www.squirrelhouseniagara.ca.  Make time to visit it this summer.  It is sure to please you with its restored Victorian buildings and inventive plantings.